Blueprint 2030: The Metropolitan Council´s Policy Guide to Growth for the Next 30 Years
By: DAVID C. SELLERGREN
Spring 2002
The Regional Blueprint is the Metropolitan Council's principal document to guide growth and regional investment for the seven-county Twin Cities metropolitan area. Its current form was adopted December 19, 1996. The Metropolitan Council is now rewriting the Plan to guide regional growth through the year 2030. After the revised Plan is adopted, it will be the primary reference to guide public investment in regional systems. The Plan will also guide the relationships between the Metropolitan Council and the 192 local governments within the Metropolitan region.
Blueprint 2030 must accommodate the estimated forecasted growth shown in Table 1.
While the numbers are high, forecasted growth is similar to past levels. Predicted population growth in each of the next three decades is less than that of the 1950s, '60s or '90s. Household growth in the next two decades is expected to be only slightly greater than any previous decade. There has been some recent increase in the household forecasts, attributable to an unexpected migration of young adults into the region during the 1990s. Nevertheless, the aging baby boom generation will have major impacts on housing, the workplace, and overall growth in the future.
The regional forecasts will be further segmented by communities. Both the region and the communities will then direct their planning, regulatory activities, and investments in regional and local infrastructure to accommodate the projected growth. The forecasted growth for each community will, however, not simply reflect historic growth trends. Rather, as it has in the past, predicted growth will reflect policy judgments. Table 2 shows the Council's preliminary policy judgment as to how it might like to redirect household growth.
The Council would like to reshape historic growth trends to an increasing use of central cities and the area's fully developed suburbs. Even so, the projections still indicate that the vast bulk of new household growth will continue to be in the developing suburbs.
The Council will also encourage locating 40 percent of new jobs on redeveloped land or urban "infill" areas. Employment growth tends to concentrate in areas already high in employment, distinguishing it somewhat from the many factors that affect the location of household growth. Both the rate and absolute numbers of growth in employment are predicted to decrease in each of the next three decades.
At the policy level, the Council appears to be focusing on the many issues associated with the attempt to direct growth to be manifested in higher densities, within fully developed areas or core cities, along transportation (preferably transit) corridors, and in existing rural centers. The Council seeks to align its policies and investments to encourage both the private sector and local governments to act in a manner consistent with its policy. The Council articulates this policy through seven guiding objectives:
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Reinvest in fully developed and older communities;
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Invest in new developing communities;
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Focus growth and redevelopment in urban and rural centers and along corridors;
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Provide greater transportation choices linked to development patterns and jobs;
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Increase life cycle and affordable housing;
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Preserve and protect natural resources; and
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Support rural communities and preserve agricultural lands.
To date, there is significant discussion about linking transportation facilities, housing, and employment, along corridors or in concentrated nodes. The Twin Cities has no significant geographic barriers to spatial growth. For that reason, the Council's policies and their implementation are potentially influential on the shape of the region.
Presently, the Council's Regional Growth Policy Committee, a committee of the whole, is meeting every two weeks to work on Blueprint 2030. At the same time, the Council is soliciting comments. It has scheduled stakeholder workshops on regional growth forecasts. It has formed several advisory groups, namely, the Business Roundtable, Regional Environmental Partnership, Housing and Land Use Advisory Committee, Real Estate Developer's Advisory Committee. It has included the Transportation Advisory Board in the discussions. Its website is a ready source of information and also invites comments.
The Council's schedule anticipates that a draft Blueprint 2030 will be reviewed as early as June 19, 2002 and will be adopted in late August for purposes of public hearings. The public hearing is tentatively scheduled for October 23, 2002 and final adoption is scheduled for December 18, 2002.
* As a representative for the Minnesota Chapter of the National Association of Industrial and Office Properties (NAIOP), Dave is a member of the Blueprint 2030 Real Estate Developer's Advisory Committee.
Table 1:
Preliminary Regional Forecasts
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Table 2:
Households - Preliminary Trend-Based & New Policy Forecasts
2000-2030 (Share by Planning Area)
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